Left Field

Jair Jurrjens: Bearish

2010-02-04T15:53:00.002-07:00

I think I'm going to pass on Jurrjens in 2010. With an ADP of 125, Jurrjens is likely in for some significant regression in the upcoming season.

2009: 14-10/2.60ERA/1.21WHIP/152Ks

But coinciding with those very respectable numbers was a xFIP of 4.34 and a very lucky BABIP .273. In other words, Jurrjens had some luck.

I expect he'll have a useful season for fantasy teams, but something more in line of a

12-10/4.00ERA/1.30WHIP/150K's. Nothing terrible, but given the choice between Jurrjens and say, Wandy Rodrigez, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, or AJ Burnett - I'll take my chances with these guys who have posted excellent K-rates.

Jay Bruce: Bullish!

2010-02-04T15:18:00.002-07:00

CHONE .283/63/25/68/7 in 406AB
Bill James .274/92/38/95/10

Jay Bruce is flying under the radar mostly due to poor batting average from 2009. He's only 23-years old. Has hit at every level. After an unlucky start to the season (.222 BABIP the lowest of all MLB players with 300ABs) he was injured, but finished strong. If he produces somewhere in between the traditionally conservative CHONE and the 'eye-toward the future' James projections he'd land somewhere around:

.280/85/30/85/8

That is similar production that you'd get out of much higher drafted outfielders such as Jason Bay, Nelson Cruz, and Nick Markakis and better production that you'll likely get our of Tori Hunter or Nate McClouth.

Say he actually lives up to Bill James predictions and hits something close to a .280 batting average, he's flirting with Ryan Braun type stats. Point is, he's got a high ceiling and according to the most conservative guesses, a low floor. Draft Bruce with confidence this season starting in the 8th round.

1-10: The Best in Fantasy Baseball

2010-02-03T19:00:00.000-07:00

I don't expect much conversation on the first 4 guys.

1. Pujols

2. Hanley

3. ARod

4. Utley

5. Mauer - Call me crazy, but I don't see any difference between Mauer and Utley in the production vs. positional value. If Utley is accepted as #4, why not Mauer at #5.

6. Braun - With the execption of Hanley, Braun is really the only legit 5x5 player on the board.

7. Miguel Cabrera - One of these years, Cabrera is going to have a Pujols-type season.

8. Fielder - I like his power slightly more than the next guy.

9. Teixeria - But I wouldn't argue if you prefer Tex?

10. Lincecum - Best pitcher in baseball - there are a lot of theories on how to draft pitchers. My feeling: Can't go wrong with Lincecum.

Ranking the Catchers

2010-02-03T06:00:00.000-07:00

There are two major schools of thought when drafting catchers: 1) Draft a stud, and 2) Draft your catcher with your last pick.

If you subscribe to the school #1 - you have three options, Mauer, McCann, or Martinez. If you subscribe too school #2 - typically, you're looking to draft someone who won't hurt you in your batting average and maybe give you something in HRs and RBI.

With the exception of Mauer (who is trully and elite talent) and Wieters (who can be drafted in the middle rounds) I would differ to school #2.

TIER 1:
1. Joe Mauer (ADP:13) - Take him with confidence as a late first round pick. I could make a strong argument for Mauer being taken 5th overall, behind only Pujols, Hanley, ARod, & Chase Utley. You can draft passable equivalents of the guy's typically being drafted from 5-12 in the second round but there is nobody in the same zip code as Mauer.

TIER 2:
2. Brian McCann (ADP: 42) - I rank McCann slightly ahead of V-Mart for two reasons: 1) He's younger and 2) He'll be a better draft value. In all likelihood, neither guy will be drafted onto my team because I just don't see either of them as top 50 commodity, but at least with McCann there's a chance at a .290/80/30/100/2 season. More realistic projections have him about .285/70/23/90/2

3. Victor Martinez (ADP:23) - Really, a second rounder? I'll pass. Best case scenario has VMart hitting barely 20HR's with a max potential of 90-100 RBI's. I need more out of my second rounders, regardless of positional scarcity. Pass!

4. Matt Wieters (ADP:104) - I have a feeling his ADP will move up once spring training starts in earnest, but Wieters is probably the only other guy I'd spend a relatively high draft pick on given his well documented upside.

TIER 3:
5. Geovany Soto (ADP: 148): I have no strong opinion on the guys in this tier. I prefer Soto slightly to Posada because of his age and to the other two because of batting average.

6. Jorge Posada (ADP: 114)- Won't hurt you, unless he's injured.

7. Mike Napoli (ADP:176) - Power is real. Batting average is a conern.

8. Chris Ianetta (ADP:181) - Ditto to Napoli.

9. Russell Martin (ADP:138) - Projection .276/70/12/70/12 A post-hype sleeper, Martin's poor 2009 might spell value in 2010.

10. Miguel Montero (ADP:143) - I'm seeing a lot of sleeper hype for Montero. I'm not sure that the Diamondbacks are committed to him with Chris Synder on the bench. Still bearish.

11. Ryan Doumit (ADP:197) - If healthy move him up to 6. So far in his career health has been a big, "If"!

12. Kurt Suzuki (ADP:132) - At lot of folks are high on Suzuki after he hit 15HR's and stole 8 bases in 2009. I feel that's not a lot to be high on...at least not for you're getting it wil a 12th or 13th round pick.

Honorable Mentions: Bengie Molina (ADP:159) - I'd be just as happy with Molina as the last three guys on the list.

Sleepers: Saltalomacchia, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Jesus Flores, J.R. Towles, Alex Avila - All these guys are young and have shown promise at some level and given a chance could produce at a high level. NONE of them are worth drafting, but if given the opportunity would be good waiver-wire adds.

First Base: Good Article

2010-02-02T12:35:00.001-07:00

Check out the excellent article over at rotoworld.com breaking down First Basemen.

Sleepers: Music to the fantasy managers ears

2010-02-02T07:54:00.002-07:00

A sleeper is any player who you believe will dramatically outperform their draft position. Often manager's look to target 'bounce-back' players, rookies, or a player who might finally live up to expectations. For purposes of this post, I will exclude any players being drafted in the top-50 since these are all guys who managers expect to produce (although, if I was to give pick undervalued guys, look for rebound seasons from Reyes and Sizemore!).

This is not an exhaustive list. This are early guys I'm looking to target based on early mock drafts.

C - Matt Wieters (ADP: 103): Possibly the only catcher in baseball who can give top-50 overall production, aside from the 3 guys being drafted top 3 already (Mauer, McCann, & Martinez). Gevoney Soto (ADP 140) would be my next choice if I missed on Wieters.
1B - Adam LaRoche (ADP: 237) - One of these years, everything is going to click for LaRochete and he'll put up a .285/95/32/110 type season. Don't believe me, well he hit .285/89/32/90 in 2006 for the Braves, so he's capable and hitting in a very favorable ballpark.
2B - Dan Uggla (ADP: 82) - Second base is a waste-land this year, so finding someone who'll give you something beside 10HR and 70 R's is tough. I'm buying on Uggle this year, batting average or not. If I miss him, I'll be looking at other Jose Lopez and possibly Ricky Weeks.
3B - Chipper Jones (ADP: 136) - If you are looking for the "good pick" comments on your draft board, go with everybody's sleeper Gorden Beckman (ADP: 93). Chipper Jones is getting up their in age (37), but hits for power and average, and if you league weights OPS, he's a monster there too. Another guy worth considering in the late rounds is Adrian Beltre (ADP: 192). Beltre is coming off a terrible season in Seattle, but many feel (see, Theo Epstein) that Beltra's strengths should play well at Fenway. Should he put up a However, when drafting older, injury-prone players like Jones and Beltre, it's a good idea to draft them for the Util position or with a good backup.
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera (157): Picking a middle infielder is going to be tough this year if you miss out of the 'big' guys. Cabrera's all-around stats won't win you a championship, but at least he's hitting near the top of the lineup and won't hurt you anywhere.
OF - BJ Upton (ADP: 60) - Offers the 5 category potential that managers need in the middle rounds to make a run at a championship.
OF - Alexis Rios (ADP 113): I'm a sucker for guys with power + speed! Bounce-back guy! Also keep an eye on Corey Hart (ADP: 200).
OF - Josh Willingham (ADP: 234) - Willingham has to get a starting job, but good power source late in the draft.
OF - Drew Stubbs (ADP: 291) - My late source for steals.
SP - Ricky Nolasco (ADP: 108) - Has #1 stuff, bad luck last year held him back. Draft him as you're #2 SP and you have the potential to dominate the pitching categories. I have a feeling that Nolasco is going to be all over draft boards this year, according to mockdraftcentral.com he's been selected as year as 74th and as late as 135th. You might be able to wait and snag him late?
SP - Clay Buchholz (ADP:201) - Post hype sleeper #1. While everyone else gushes over Brett Anderson, I'll target Buchholz.
SP - David Price (ADP: 176) - Post hype sleeper #2. Good stuff, but pitches in the AL East.
RP - Octavio Dotel - Every season I pick an unproven closer that I'll take as my second or third guy. Dotel is that guy this year.

Edwin Jackson: Bearish

2010-01-25T09:28:00.003-07:00

Things you need to know.

A great post at Fangaphs spells out the geeky stuff, but I'll just focus on a couple points.

1) xFIP: 4.39 In a nutshell, all other things equal, Jackson's ERA will be closer to the Mid 4's than the 2009's Mid 3's.

2) Jackson finished the season with 6.77K/9. Typically, I'd like a little better percentage in my upside pitchers.

2) He's 26 years old. He throws a 94MPH fastball. He was just trading to the Diamondbacks hitter-friendly home ball park. But pitchers tend to make a nice improvement in value when switching to the NL. So, all things are not equal and he's a kid with good upside and moderate risk. Could he finish the season with another sub-4.00 ERA?

Verdict: Currently, Jackson is being drafted 163rd overall. That is right behind the likes of Oswalt, Lilly, and Danks and right ahead of Zambrano, David Price, and Scott Kazmir. In my mind, I all these guys a little better than Jackson. Sure, the change to the NL is nice, but you have other options. If you want upside, I think Price is a bombshell pick, and Kazmir at least offers K's on a team who'll rack up W's. If you are looking for a decent 3rd starter, you more or less know what you're getting from the vets. I'm very bearish on Jackson come draft day, at this value.

Last Years Sleepers By Team

2010-01-22T11:34:00.002-07:00

A review of my sleepers by team from Jan-2009:

Best picks: Adam Jones, Kendry Morales, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Phil Hughes (as a SP though)! Some of these guys were favorite sleepers around the league, but I'd say I was alone on an island on Kendry Morales.

Worst picks: Kelly Johnson, Brad Penney (in Boston), Travis Hafner. Of these guys, the one who was most disappointing was Kelly Johnson. Chances are he'll have a .285/85/24/75/20/.825 season in Zona this year.

Repeats for 2010: Elvis Andrus! Alicodus Escobar. A shallow MI makes both these players speed valuable in itself.

Bullish

2010-01-22T11:09:00.002-07:00

Bullish:

Drew Stubbs (OF) - As a late round value for SBs, I'm very interested to watch the Stubbs. Bill James really likes him too (.267/76R/11HR/51RBI/51SB/.726OPS). All the projection systems have low expectations for his BA (James being the highest), but were he to flirt with 10HR/35+SBs he'd be in elite company and could be drafted as a 4th/5th OF.

Ricky Nolasco (SP) - Without getting into the geeky stuff, Nolasco had terrible luck last year and finished the season with a xFIP of 3.28. If you aren't a nerd, that basically means all other things equal, his ERA should adjust down close to the mid 3's this season, instead of the 5.06 he posted last year. Draft him as a 3rd or 4th SP and get #2 (or #1) potential.

Octavio Dotel (RP_ - He's this seasons Health Bell. This is a gut feeling mostly. His K rate is really good and if he closes in Pitts (who else would?), he'll be a good late closer target. Think David Aarsdma cheap...

Wow - it's been a year!

2010-01-22T11:03:00.002-07:00

It's been a year since I've made an entry, but plan is to start up again soon. I'm going to try a new format, considering calling my entries "Bearish or Bullish" and review a couple guys I feel are overvalued or undervalued. If anybody still has me set on RSS, new material will be coming shortly.

Targets: Jay Bruce vs Chris Davis (and Evan Longoria)

2009-01-30T09:11:00.005-07:00

Am I crazy or wasn't Jay Bruce not the #1 prospect in baseball coming into last season? Well, okay, maybe Evan Longoria, but not Chris Davis.

Chris Davis is currently being drafted 68th overall vs. Bruce at 103th. Let's compare several projection systems and see what the experts have forecast.

Chris Davis:

Mercel .288 / 54 / 16 / 56 / 3 (only in 358 ABs)
Mercel* .288 / 83 / 25 / 86 / 5 (at 550 ABs)
CHONE - none available?
Bill James .302 / 107 / 40 / 118 / 8

Hello, I'd like to introduce to you A-Rod! Seriously, Bill James projection is off the charts. I think the adapted Mercel proejctions more likely, but even if we meet somewhere in the middle where does that leave us .290 / 90 / 30 / 90 / 6? Sounds an aweful lot like Joey Votto to me, with maybe a little less risk...either way, he's not a bad selection in the 5th to 6th round, and given the decline we have seen from Derek Lee, and the unpredictability of Delgado, Pena, & Huff, I wouldn't fault anybody for taking Davis.

Jay Bruce:

CHONE .276/ 78 / 27 / 70 / 10
Mercel .271 / 59 /18 / 51 / 5
Bill James .296/ 94 / 35 / 90 / 12

Well, according to Bill James, Bruce and Davis will be 2010 first rounders. Given, James projection Bruce looks like a carbon-copy of Ryan Braun. The other projections seem to favor Bruce slightly ahead of Davis.

Personally, I'm targeting Bruce as significantly undervalued this season. Truth is, I believe much of the Reds roster is being undervalued. (Votto, Volquez, Harang, & Cordero all offer good value.) If Bruce could approach the CHONE projection above, he will easily be a top 50 hitters in 2009. Say he settles in with R / RBI totals closer to James' projection, he moves into the Top 30. I like his upside and the Reds lineup, so feel free to pull the trigger in the 5th round forward.

Say you are sitting there in the 5th and you are looking at Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury, & Bobby Abreau - yeah, see what I mean, take Jay Bruce.

Evan Longoria:

As an added bonus I thought it would be interesting to see rookie corner Longoria (and second or third round pick) was projected. Interestly enough, these three players are all loved by James and very similiar when compared against each projections system. Also, take Mercel and Chone with a grain of salt given their limited ABs. If the experts project this similiar of production, why are these players sperated by 30-40 draft spots each?

CHONE .265 / 71 /22 / 80 / 5
CHONE* .265 / 86 / 27 / 97 / 6 *(550)*
Mercel .280 / 60 / 21 / 71 / 7 (452 AB)
Mercel* .280 / 83 / 29 / 98 / 10 *(550AB)*
James .280 / 107 / 37 / 102 / 9 (400 AB)

Picking 9th: Mock Draft Central ADP values

2009-01-30T08:00:00.000-07:00

For practice, I decided to do a mock draft if I were selecting players based off their ADP at mock draft central. Last season I performed several of these prior to actually logging into a live draft to prepare myself for values and find holes in my draft logic. For example, I selected Cano in the 6th round, but have him ranked as the 58th overall hitter?

I personally like my pitching staff, but there are several big questions marks with starters (Galladro & Randy Johnson). My hitters simply do not have enough power.

Picks that I though offered good value: Votto, King Felix, Joey Devine (assuming he's the closer), and Gil Meche.

Picks that I like back included Cano, Alex Gordon & Conor Jackson. With Beltre, Mora, and Lowell, Blalock, and Mark Reynolds still available, these older vets offered good value for several rounds latter. As much as I like Conor Jackson, I should have gone for a little more power here. In retrospect, I wish I would have selected Beltre and Blaylock a little latter to fill out my lineup & upgraded my MI or C.

The result was the following:

Round 1 (pick 9): Ryan Braun

Round 2 (pick 16): Prince Fielder

Round 3 (pick 33): Alex Rios

Round 4 (pick 40): Vlad Guerrero

Round 5 (Pick 57): Jacoby Ellsbury

Round 6 (pick 64): Robinson Cano

Round 7 (pick 81): Joey Votto

Round 8 (pick 88): Felix Hernandez

Round 9 (pick 105): Troy Tulowitzki

Round 10 (pick 112): Yovanni Galladro

Round 11 (pick 129): Nelson Cruz

Round 12 (pick 136): Francisco Cordero

Round 13 (pick 153): Randy Johnson

Round 14 (pick 160): Alex Gordon

Round 15 (pick 167): Heath Bell

Round 16 (pick 184): Joey Devine

Round 17 (pick 193): Conor Jackson

Round 18 (pick 210): Jeff Clement

Round 19 (pirck 217): Jonathan Sanchez

Round 20 (pick 234): Edgar Renteria

Round 21 (pick 241): Gil Meche

Round 22 (pick 258): Fausto Carmona

Round 23 (pick 265): Chris Synder

Best Non-Closer Relievers in 2008

2009-01-29T15:56:00.000-07:00

According to my rankings, here's who you should target in 2009.

1) Joey Devine (likely closer in 2009)

2) Carlos Marmal (likely closer in 2009)

3) Grant Balfour

4) Hong-Chih Kuo (shot at the rotation?)

5) Taylor Buchholz

6) Matt Thornton

7) Jose Arredondo (Possible closer in 2009)

8) J.P. Howell

9) Jesse Carlson

10) Chad Qualls

Targets: Ryan Zimmerman

2009-01-29T13:19:00.003-07:00

In 2006, 22-year-old, Ryan Zimmerman compiling a total of 70 extra base hits, and finished the season hitting

.287 / 84 / 20 / 110 / 11

The following year he regressed a bit, but finished with

.266 / 99 / 24 / 91 / 4 - increasing his extra base hits to 72.

Last year, Zimmerman had almost 200 less AB's in an injury riddled 2008, but managed to still hit 14 HRs with a decent average of .283. More importantly, in his 47 games in August and September, Zims hit .305 and in Sept. hit 5 HR's, a sign that he had recovered from the wrist injury that wreck much of the early part of his season.

At this point I think it is unwise to project more than a couple SBs for Zimmerman, but a return to 20-plus homers and 90 plus RBI's should be the low end of his value. Remember, Zimmerman will play most of 2009 as a 25-year-old, his upside is still very real. As an 8th-9th round pick, Zimmerman should offer equal or better value (and upside) than other corner options, James Loney, Aubrey Huff, & Carlos Delgado.

Bill James projects a .290 / 84 / 22 / 87 / 3 season.

However, James only gives Zimmerman a total of 66 extra base hits. I think its fair to expect him back at his 06/07 level of 70+, so I'm slightly more valuable. According to my rankings this gives Zimmerman a top 30 hitting value.

Projection:

.290 / 84 / 26 / 95 / 3

Evaulating the Mariners: Fantasy nuggets

2009-01-29T09:07:00.003-07:00

The Mariners made a great trade yesterday sending career relief pitcher Aaron Heilman to the Cubs for prospects middle infielder Ronny Cedano and end of the rotation lefty Garrett Olsen. There is a great article at mlb.com, in which new GM Jack Zduriencik says he "wants to create "natural competition" at virtually every position."

"When you have competition, that's a good thing," Zduriencik said. "I expect both of these guys to come in and compete for a job."

I count five players that should have fantasy value in 2009, regardless of the 'natural competition'.

Ichiro - You know what you are getting
King Felix - Breakout year? Watch out Lincecum!
Beltre - A solid third base option for any fantasy team
Bedard-If healthy, could return to ace-type numbers
Jose Lopez - Undervalued, especially if he retains an RBI postion in the lineup.

Plus three trendy sleepers that appear have the blessing of Mariners management:

Brandon Morrow - Throws hard, great closer last season, can he make transition to rotation?
Franklin Gutierrez - Defensive specialist, power/speed combo questions remain?
Jeff Clement - A Left Field favorite for value at the catcher postion in 2009!

Assuming this leaves LF, SS, 1b, DH, & closer as wide open races lets look what other players the M's have on their depth chart.

LF - Endy Chavez offers little fantasy value, most likely as a platoon bat at most. Most fantasy managers have at least seen the name of Wladimier Balentien a time or two, as he crushed the ball at the Mariners Triple-A affiliet & has seen some time in the bigs both the last two seasons. He struggled to hit major league pitching in 2008 & strikeouts a lot. In many cases, management would be willing to let a free-swinging power hitter work through their K's, but the M's were last in the majors last season in OBP.

Mike Morse is a very intriguing player. A converted short stop, Morse is 6-4, 26 years old and had a torrid 2008 spring training that earning him a starting job. He also plays first base and has to be considered in the mix.

SS - Yuniesky Betancourt is about as boring as anybody in fantasy baseball. Ronny Cedano should offer a significant upgrade if he wins the starting job out of spring training. A 15/15 season with .270 average is not unreasonable to expect.

1b - Bryan LaHair, Russell Branyan, and Mike Morse will most likely form a platoon, with Branyan getting the majority of the AB's against righties (.653 SLG % in 2008 in 118 AB). Watch this race closely. None of thes players are probably worth drafting, but waiver wire adds early in the season sometimes prove to be steals.

DH - Russell Branyan will get some AB's, but much of the press seems to indicate that Jeff Clement will get DH atbats when he isn't behind the plate. This make Clement extra valuable, since its very possible he gets 500 AB's.

Closer - Mark Lowe, David Aardsma, Tyler Walker seem to be the candidates that would qualify. Late round closers are typically undervalued, so we'll watch this race with much interest. Lowe and Aardsma throw really hard and going into the spring, Lowe has the edge.

Targets: Conor Jackson (the outfielder)

2009-01-27T10:27:00.009-07:00

Remember the knock on Kevin Youklis? Hit for a good line-up, great plate discipline, good average, not enough power from a first baseman.

Allow me to introduce you to Kevin Youklis 2009. Last year Conor Jackson was more valuable than he looked on paper. The following numbers just don't jump off the page at one:

.300 / 87 / 12 / 75 / 10 / .823 OPS

Especially the HR total just seems to speak of Jackson being a bust for 2008. Truth is, most managers target a first baseman who will give you 90 to 100 Runs and RBIs and at least 20 homers. But, Jackson's 10 SB almost equals out the loss in power and he scored enough runs to be servicable.

But, not so fast my friend. You don't have to draft Jackson as a corner infielder, he qualifies as an outfielder this season. Even as a CI, I have Jackson ranked ahead of Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Adam LaRoche, and Mike Jacobs, but to compare apples to apples, take a look at another young, highly touted outfielder's 08 performance.

.290 / 80 / 10 / 69 / 14 / .741 OPS

Close, huh? Which would you draft first? That's Delmon Young's stats above.

Jackson has upside that is easily worth a mid-round draft pick. 20+ HR's won't be projected by any expert, but don't think it isn't possible. In 2008 Youkils saw his SLG% rise .116%. Jackson now has 2 full seasons under his belt and is entering the golden age (27-years-old) season. If Jackson's SLG% inmproved by only half of Youkils '08 jump, 20 HRs should be a breeze. Fact is, I wouldn't be shocked if 2010 finds Jackson being mentioned with Youkilis, Derek Lee, and Joey Votto.

Upside Shortstops: deep sleepers

2009-01-27T08:35:00.002-07:00

Elvis Andrus - Highly touted, Young is moving to third, Texas is preparing the way for Andrus to be its SS for a long, long time. But I expect he'll start the season in Triple-A. Stash him if you are in a keeper league, otherwise, wait until he gets called-up.

Mike Aviles - Its hard to argue with success, but I'm not buy Aviles late breakout. Take a flyer on him with a late round pick, but don't expect more that 10/10.

Jed Lowrie - Somewhere I read that Lowrie was a lot like Pedrioa. However, he's yet to prove this notion. Without outstanding speed or power or average, Lowrie offers little to get excited about.

Alcides Escobar - Much like Andrus, Escobar is expected to be called up the moment JJ Hardy is dealt for much needed pitching. Stash in keeper leagues, 2010 will be Escobar's year. Bill James thinks a lot of him.

Emmaunul Burriess - If he finds playing time at either second or short, he'll steal bases. Don't draft him, but troll the waivers when he gets his shot.

Reid Brignac - Perhaps the most under-appreciated minor league sleeper. Brignac has great power and could flirt with Peralta type numbers given a fair shot, worth stashing if he starts any point this season.

Ronny Cedano - Please Cubs, trade Cedano! With excellent Triple-A numbers that have never fully translated in the bigs, Cedano could put up Jeter/Young type numbers given a chance. As crazy as it sounds, given 400 ABs, I'd rather take a flyer on Cedano than Lowrie or Aviles.

What shortstop has the most upside potential in the draft?

2009-01-23T12:27:00.005-07:00

Here is the completion of what I would consider 'safe' or established short-stops going into 2009 spring training.

1. Alexei Ramirez - see previous post.

2. J.J. Hardy - I know a lot of experts have Stephen Drew pegged here, but I like JJ Hard just a tad more. None of the next three shortstops will give you much in the way of speed, but Hardy has the most potential in the area of power. At just 26 years old, he got off to a slow start in April and May, but after that righted his ship and had an OPS of .906 for the last four months of baseball. If he put that all together in a season 30HRs and 100 RBI is possible.

Projection: .280 / 80 R / 27 HR / 92 RBI / 1 SB

3. Troy Toluwitzki - .291 / 104 R / 24 HR / 99 RBI / 7 SB. That isn't a projection, that's his rookie season. How short our memories are! Tulo is only 24 years old and many have given up too soon.

Projection: .285 / 95 R / 20 HR / 90 RBI / 8 SB

4. Stephen Drew - Much as been made of Drew, but with a .333 OBP he's not an ideal leadoff hitter for a very good offensive club in Arizona. However, his 76 extra bases hits are impressive, a breakout campaign would not shock anyone.

Projection: .270 / 94 R / 25HR / 65 RBI / 5 SB

5. Jhonny Peralta - much like JJ Hardy, Peralta is only 26 years old, which is easy to forgot since he's played a full 4 seasons in the majors already. He has a slightly high BABIP for his career than Hardy, so more prone to his luck regressing his numbers slightly.

Projection: .270 / 90 R/ 23 HR / 85 RBI / 3 SB

6: Yunel Escobar: I expect Renteria type production from Escobar, only he has significant upside to Renteria. Not brave enough to try for a projection here, but I'd expect decent runs from Escobar, but not much else to help your fantasy team.

Alexei Ramirez: Is he worth a fifth round pick?

2009-01-23T08:10:00.006-07:00

I know, I know, I'd said I was going to write about the upside shortstops today, but I got so caught up digging into Ramirez numbers that I felt it would be worthwhile to walk readers through my analysis as I flip-flop positions on the Cuban import.

The Projections: (thanks to Fangraphs.com for making this info easy to access)

Bill James: 574 AB , 88 Runs, 24 HRs, 97 RBI, 14 SB, 0.289 Batting average.

The godfather of baseball projections has Ramirez as a fantastic fantasy option in 2009. Using my current rating system, this would place Ramirez as a top 30 fantasy option, right in the same territory as Aramis Ramirez. So, there is major upside.

Chone: 412AB, 56 runs, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, 0.286 batting average

Mercel : 420AB, 58 runs, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 10 SB, .286 batting average

These projections are eerily close, rating out the Ramirez around 93rd hitter overall (note: not 93rd overal, these projections only take hitters into consideration). However, Ramirez appears to have a starting spot locked down, so if we increase these projections to a more feasible 550ABs* using the same projections AB proportions, we get a total of

Chone*: 75runs, 23HR, 88RBI, 16SB

Mercel*: 77runs, 23HR, 85RBI 13SB

This now places Ramirez as roughly a top 40 hitter, in the same conversation as Joey Votto and Bobby Abreau, easily returning equal value for his current draft position.

Left Field Anayslis:

If you have been following my posts, I've flip flopped on Ramirez. I originally felt coming of of last offseason that Ramirez would be a good value pick going somewhere between rounds 8-10 in 2009 drafts. However, as I watched ADP values at Mock Draft Central I became concerned with other managers reaching for Ramirez as a solid fifth round pick.

After Ramirez locked up a starting gig for the White Sox season, he began to produce decent numbers, but in from May through Sept he was a top 5 second best second baseman. In 398 AB, he had 54R, 19HR, 70RBI, 11SB, with a .301 batting average. Projecting these totals over 550 ABs, you get a freakish:

77R, 27HR, 100RBI, 16SB,

Assuming he maintained his .301 average, this places him as a top 20 hitter. In a season where middle infielders with decent fantasy value don't exactly grow on trees, this is the potential that managers are seeing and drafting in the fifth round.

Two more items: 81% contact rate will keep his batting average safe. But, I do have some concern with his GB/FB ratio of 1.28. For a great article on this, head over to Fantasy Phenoms.

Having said this, I'll make my very first projection for 2009:

Alexei Ramirez: .285 / 80 R / 22 HR / 92 RB / 13SB

This is good for about the 40th best hitter. Certainly not without risk, but I've changed my position on Ramirez and now consider him as similiar in value as Robinson Cano with an extra 10SB. I'm endorsing a 5th round selection of Ramirez, especially if he carries over SS eligibility in your league.

Shortstop Question 2: Oldies, but Goodies?

2009-01-22T10:00:00.002-07:00

First off, let me say that I believe most fantasy baseball managers expect their first 2b/SS taken to perform like this: .280+ / 15 / 85+ / 50 / 20+. Not great production, but reasonable for the typically softer hitters. Leadoff guys with a little pop and a lot of speed.

Well, I've got news for you! It ain't going to happen this season, at least not for the middle infielders that are available after the fourth round. Basically you'll only get these numbers from Hanley, Reyes, Rollins, Kinsler, Pedrioa, and Phillips (throw in Rickie Weeks if you don't mind the batting average). If you add in Utley as a better than average second baseman in every other category that only gives a league 7 middle infielders who meet basic 'assumptions' about your first middle infielder selected.

That's it! That's all folks. Change your perception of this season's middle infielders. Please, please, please don't try to squeeze that production out of guys who simply won't get it. There are several decent power options at SS and 2b, but the steals especially are scarce from the middle infield, just plan for it.

2. Oldies, but goodies?

Rafael Furcal - I'm not drafting Furcal in the 5th round...if I felt he was a lock for 40 SB and 100+ runs (a la Brain Roberts) , then sure, but I don't see it. Lets assume he hits .286 / 11 HR / 92 runs / 51 RBI / 24 SB...does that seem reasonable? It should, that is the most optimistic combination of Bill James, Mercel, and CHONE projections.

If I do the same exercise for Felipe Lopez, I get the following line .274 / 11 HR / 81 R / 56 RBI / 19 SB! Huh, you give up .10 of batting average, 11 runs, and 5 SB. Does that seem to justify the 15 round difference in draft position? I didn't think so. (Depending on your format, Lopez actually played 13 games at SS so it's possible he'll qualify at short!)

Why is Furcal so 'overvalued'? Big market bias? He's incredible start in 2008? Manny? Over-hyped sleeper victim?

Derek Jeter & Michael Young: I grouped these two together because from a fantasy perspective you know what you are getting. Nearly 100 runs, decent RBIs (70-80ish), good batting average and sub par power and steals. Believe it or not, I actually like two a little better than their upside counterparts (Ramirez, Furcal, Drew, Hardy, Tulo). They are both going from 7th-9th rounds and I think that is decent (if a little boring) value.

Edgar Renteria: If you miss everybody else, Renteria is a better option than Theirot. Expect a slight rebound for NL Edgar.

Miguel Tejada: How old is Tejada really? I don't even think his mother knows this... Maybe he a ndGreg Oden should swap PR agents? I'd pass on Tejada. In a recent expert draft at Mock Draft Central he went in the 18th round, so if you can get him in the 18th that would be about right.

These guys are one-dimensional, but serviceable depending on team needs: Ryan Theirot Orlando Cabrera Christian Guzman Khali Greene. I would look at these guys as more than waiver-wire adds.

Tomorrow, we'll look at our third question in the series: 3. Which shortstops offer the most upside draft value?

As a teaser I'll go over the following guys and my thoughts on each:

Alexei Ramirez
Stephew Drew
Troy Tulowitzki
Jhonny Peralta
J.J. Hardy
Yunel Escobar

Digging Deeper:
Mike Aviles
Jed Lowrie
Alcides Escobar
Elvis Andrus
Emmaunul Burriess
Reid Brignac
Ronny Cedano

Top 24 - Rankings

2009-01-21T07:34:00.003-07:00

We'll get back to shortstops tomorrow...until then lets finish the discussion started with Jimmy Rollins. If I rank him 6th overall, due to the top 24 being so interchangable, how do I look at the remaining first two rounds. Briefly, here is how I currently rank players. However, I'll being watching closely Pujols, Utley, Holliday, and Quentin this spring!

1. ARod - Pujols rates ahead of even ARod if 100% healthy.

2. Jose Reyes - Steals, batting in front of Mets lineup is a little better than Marlins.

3. Hanley Ramirez - So I'm going against conventional wisdom a bit.

4. Albert Pujols - He was easily the best fantasy player in 2008 - healthy?

5. David Wright - Whats not to like?

6. Jimmy Rollins - see yesterdays post.

7. Miguel Cabrera - Could improve on last years numbers. Second half of season was encouraging.

8. Grady Sizemore - Hanley and Grady = 30/30

9. Ryan Braun - Slightly edges next four or five guys because of power potential.

10. Mark Teixiera - Might never hit 40 again, but 140 RBI's are not impossible?

11. Matt Holliday - One of the hardest guys to slot. Concerns of decrease in steals are most alarming.

12. Alfonso Soriano - I'm one of the few who see the Milton Bradley singing as a good thing. Soriano, Theirot, Lee, Ramirez, Bradley, Soto. Yeah, that looks pretty good, even better if Bradley bats, second. Last proven 5 tool guy available.

13. Chase Utley - If I had a crystal ball, I'd slot Utley higher...or lower, depending on health.

14. Lance Berkman - The steals really pushed Berkman's value up.

15. Prince Fielder - Still has power, even with the big drop in '08. .

16. Josh Hamilton - Okay, now he's a good deal.

17. Ryan Howard - I don't trust Howard. When you are setting records and they have to do with striking out, this is not a good thing.

18. Carlos Lee - Boring? Perhaps, but consistent is good when anchoring your team.

19. Alex Rios - Here's my biggest jump from traditional draft placement. Rios is the only guy outside of Grady and Hanley with 30/30 potential. I know, "What about BJ Upton, Granderson, Kemp?" you say. I'll get to them. Personally like Rios the best.

20. Matt Kemp - Basically will give you Jimmy Rollins production for a third round price.

20. Carlos Quinten - Why are people drafting one year wonder Hamilton in the first round and Quinten in the 3rd?

21. Nick Markikis - Carlos Lee, with upside! Finished top 5 RBI outfielders in '08.

23. Johann Santana - I won't be drafting Santana in the second, but he's easily worth this draft spot.

24. Justin Morneau - Gives you solid numbers in 4 categories and if you got lucky enough to nap one of the top five, looks really good why any of those guys.

Is Jimmy Rollins a First Rounder?

2009-01-20T13:01:00.010-07:00

When I looked back over what I published earlier today, I had a 'crumple-crumple-shoot-toward-the-waste-basket' moment.' I wrote nothing that everyone who follows fantasy baseball doesn't already know. If you are new to fantasy baseball, by all means, read the post. Otherwise, ignore it and I'll attempt to answer the 3 questions everyone is asking about the shortstop position in 2009.

In short, Jimmy Rollins is a first round pick. In fact, I believe he should be selected 6th overall!

Hanley and Reyes are gone within the first 5 picks. So if you are picking somewhere between 6 and 12 you are faced with the question, "Do you take on Rollins?" To answer this question, let's look at the other players being selected 6-15 and compare their value to Rollins, who is currently at ADP#8.

#6: Grady Sizemore - With a better batting average and a move to 3rd in the lineup, Grady could be next years number one pick overall. I'm not opposed to selecting Grady ahead of Rollins, but there is good depth for power/speed outfielders in this years draft. Alfonso Soriano, BJ Upton, Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson, & Matt Kemp are all available late second and early third rounds. Plus, Rollin's is no fluke at power either. Remember, he could easily go 20/40 in 2009, while leading baseball in runs scored. I'll take Rollins.

#7: Miguel Cabrera - This pick appeals to me. Something about raw power, plate discipline, and Cabrera's youth all seem to scream "A-Rod!" "Pujols!"...so I won't fault you for taking Cabrera ahead of Jimmy Rollins. But, if I'm picking 6th and figure that by pick 18, I'll have a good shot at Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, and possibly Lance Berkman. I'll opt for Rollins.

#9: Josh Hamilton - Love Hamiliton's story, but I think the RBIs were a bit flukish and the depth at guys hitting 30/10 is too good to reach for Hamilton in the first. I'll take Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, or Nick Markakis in a couple rounds and get identical value.

#10: Ryan Braun - Braun has sick power, but as previously stated, outfielders are deep. I'm sticking with Rollins.

#11: Ian Kinsler - I already wrote extensively about Kinsler here. The drop off from Kinsler to Pedrioa or Roberts non-existent. Please don't draft Kinsler in the first.

#12: Ryan Howard - I hate Howard's batting average. I know he finished the season like the Bambino, but, I'll still take his leadoff hitter first.

#13: Matt Holliday - I like this true 5 tool guy, but questions about his move to Oakland are more than fair. I'm ranking Holliday ahead of Hamilton, Kinsler, and Howard. Just after Rollins.

#14: Mark Teixiera - Getting signed by the Yankees was huge for Tex. I actually bumped him ahead of Howard in my rankings, just because of the RBI and Run opportunities. But like Howard, there is good depth at first base and if I miss Teixiera, I can still nab Prince, my late second rounder of choice.

#15: Lance Berkman - See Howard and Teixiera.

#16: Johann Santana - Pitching is never scarce, I don't care what people say, I love watching Santana pitch, but I won't be drafting him in the second round.

Questions for tomorrows post!

2. Are there any oldies, but goodies at shortstop this year?
3. Which shortstop offers the most upside in the draft?

Shortstop: ADP 1-8

2009-01-16T14:11:00.010-07:00

Tier 1:

1. Hanley Ramirez (ADP 1) - There is enough written that I will only add my two-cents: Are you sure you want to select a player from the Florida Marlins #1 overall. They did trade one of their better hitters in Mike Jacobs (which in itself says a lot about the Marlins lineup)?

2. Jose Reyes (ADP 3) - I actually like Reyes 'value' at 3-5 better than Ramirez because he bats leadoff for the Mets lineup. You can debate the order of the top 5, but I am personally going 1. A-Rod (2. Pujols if he proves he's 100%) and then Reyes.

3. Jimmy Rollins (ADP 8) - There is a lot of debate about where Rollins should go. Most of this is because picks 6 through 25 could just about be completely reversed and who would know the difference (i.e. if you can choose your draft spot, get one of the top 5 guys). Really, is Ryan Braun that much better than Alfonso Soriano? Is Texiera that much better than Fielder? But, Rollins is markedly better than the next SS selected, that of course being...

Tier 2:

4: Alexei Ramiriz (ADP 52) - I know, I know, it seems like this should be Tier 3, not tier 2, but that is how barren the SS position is this season. Alexei Ramiriz was one of those guys I expected to be under valued coming into 2009. Apparently the exact opposite has happened. I don't know if this is because Ozzie Guillen pimped him so much for Rookie of the Year votes (did he really expect him to beat our Longoria?), or if so many managers picked him up mid-season when he was on fire and are hoping he can play like that all year, or the fact he's a Cuban defector is somehow patriotic, but he's become one of 2009 most over-valued players. A great post at Fantasy Baseball Junkie has Ramiriz 2008 value as 79 spots lower than his current drafted value in 2009. In other words, he'd have to significantly improve on his 2008 stats to equal his draft position. One more word of caution - he was caught stealing on 12 of his 25 attempts.

5. Rafael Furcal (ADP 60) - Furcal is 31 years-old and coming off an injury shortened season. For those reasons, I am bearish on Furcal. His career year was 2006, when with 654 AB's he had 15 HRs, 113 Runs, 37 SB, while batting .300. He's never had massive power and those who draft him are looking mostly at runs and SB's. Allow me to caution you. In 2006 Furcal was caught stealing 13 times on 60 attempts. Detractors look at his numbers and age and see Jimmy Rollins lite. However, Rollins doesn't get caught. Even in Rollins injury riddled 08, he was only caught 3 times in 50 attempts. Whats more, if Manny does eventually get signed by the Dodgers, expect Furcal to get a spike in perceived value to the point where he'll probably be getting drafted regularly in the 4th round and have negative value given his draft position.

6. Michael Young (ADP 77): 2008 was good for .284 / 104 R / 12 HR / 82 RBI / 10 SB - He's draft position will probably slip some with the news that he's willing to move to 3B. If he dropped 15-30 spots, that might actually be a good value for him. Don't underestimate the 100 Rs and 75+ RBIs.

7. Stephen Drew (ADP 92): Drew has been on a lot of sleeper lists, and I've seen him mentioned as high as 4th on several expert's list. He's been selected as high as 55th at Mock Draft Central. I'm guessing his draft position moves up dramatically by the time most leagues will be drafting. Watch Drew closely. He's very similar in peripherals to JJ Hardy and Jhonny Peralta who are currently going anywhere from 1 to 3 rounds later. If that gaps widens very much, you might pass on Drew.

8: Derek Jeter (ADP 93): .300 / 88 R / 11 HR / 68 RBI / 11 SB - See Michael Young. These guys had almost identical lines in 08 and are probably safe bets to repeat in 09. Not that there is anything sexy about the picks, but as thin as SS is if you get a chance to nail down one of these guys in the 8th or 9th round, isn't that's better than rolling the dice on Khalil Greene.

Please let me know what you think.

2009-01-16T13:59:00.004-07:00

This is still a new site and I very much appreciate feedback. Please let me know what you think by leaving a comment. Currently I'm working on improving the layout...hopefully the content makes up for the run of the mill blog look!

Second Base: ADP #14-20

2009-01-15T11:32:00.010-07:00

14: Rickie Weeks (ADP 210): No player that I can think of in fantasy baseball has the potential to leap 170 spots as quickly as Rickie Weeks. By simply changing his '08 batting average from its abysmal .234 to .274 he'd be a top 5 second baseman. Even with his Mendoza line average, he still sported a .342 OBP (better than Jose Lopez who batted .296 with a .330 OBP). Rickie finished last year with 14 HR and 19 SB and 89 Runs in 129 games. Imagine what he could do with a .274 average? 20 / 20 isn't hard to imagine, plus a full season of AB's he easily exclipse 100 runs. He is the Siren Song of fantasy baseball drafters...beware!

15: Polcado Polanco (ADP 214) - We all know what we'll get here! If you don't, please refer to his last 3 seasons.

16: Ian Stewart (ADP 262) - Probably won't qualify at 2b, but if he should be in the same conversation as Jose Lopez and Kelly Johnson. Stewart isn't even a bad pick as a last round CI! Check your league and do your research though.

17: Clint Barmes (ADP 272): Once showed promise, now fighting for a spot in restructuring Denver. Risky without a lot of upside. I'll be passing.

18: Felipe Lopoz (ADP 283): Did you know that as recently as 2006, Lopez had 11 HRs and 44SB? Nope, neither did I. Plus, Felipe is moving from a pitcher friends to hitters friendly park, with some decent bats (from Washington to Arizona). I just bumped him a couple spots on my draft cheat and so should you.

19: Aaron Hill (ADP 300): Was on a lot of sleeper lists in '08, but injury cut Hill's 08 short. He's still young and could see a rebound this season.

20: Orlando Hudson (ADP 320) - Okay, I admit it. There were actually a couple guys being taken before Hudson, but I think that's a function of him not having signed with a team yet. Personally, I'd take Hudson before Mark Ellis, Jeff Kent, or Akinori Iwamura, wouldn't you? Anyway, Hudson is a very good defender and falls into that 'better in real life than fantasy' category.

Taken after Top 20:

Alexi Casilla (ADP 327): Remember what I said about Kaz Matsui being a lousy draft choice because he was one dimensional. Well, forget it. I said that because he is being picked 10 rounds ahead of this guy and he's old (SB guys who are old = high risk). Casilla as a last round pick is low risk, high reward sleeper. Let's say he bats first or second for the Twins and plays a full season (600 ABs, not the 400 ABs I'm seeing projected by some), hits .270 with 7 HR and 30SB and 100 Runs. I'm not saying he's going to, but if I'm taking a chance on him or Kaz, I'll going with Alexi.

Mike Fontenot (ADP 356): Warning! A 29-year old career minor leaguer is NOT A SLEEPER. You will see his name on sleeper lists. Please ignore those lists. Now, Rinse and repeat - Mike Fontenot is not a sleeper. At best, he'll be splitting time with Aaron Miles (ADP 399).

Emilio Bonafacio (ADP 453): Speedster might burn up the base-paths in Florida. What do the Marlins have to lose letting him run wild?

Second Base: ADP #9-13

2009-01-14T13:13:00.018-07:00

Yesterday, we took a look at the top 8 second basemen. These are guys that are well known around the league. Today, we'll take a more in depth look at the next four: Howie Kendrick (ADP 128), Kaz Matsui (ADP 170), Mark DeRosa (177), Jose Lopez (ADP 180), Kelly Johnson (ADP 204).

#9 Howie Kendrick (ADP128):

A 25 year-old contact hitter, Howie Kendrick has yet to live up to his potential. The main knock against Kendrick is his health, having played no more than 92 games in MLB season. However, fantasy drafters are selecting Kendrick as the #9 overall second baseman or 128th overall in recent mock drafts at MDC. Let's see if they are crazy and if you should follow suit?

CHONE projects Howie Kendrick as follows: 463 AB 69 Runs 9 HR 61 RBI 12 SB 0.305 Batting Average. I think those projections look reasonable, which begs the question, "Why draft those underwhelming stats in the 10th round?"

Kendrick represents the last chance of drafters getting a player with all five skill sets at a MI position(AVG, SB, and to a lesser degree R, RBI, and HR). More specifically, Kendrick's perceived value as a blue-chip prospect seems to be separating him dramatically from the Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, ans Kaz Matsui.

Assuming that Kendrick gets 550 healthy ABs (and bats in the upper 3rd of the Angels lineup): 82 Runs 11 HR 72 RBI 14 SB with .305 batting average is not out of reach.

#10 Kaz Matsui (ADP 170): I don't like drafting guys who are one dimensional. That is Kaz to a "T." He'll get you SB (when healthy) and some runs. But you can forget HR or RBIs! His average won't hurt, but it won't help either. Also, he's not a lock to leadoff and if he lands at the bottom of the lineup this season, I'd pass altogether. Even leading off, I don't like Matsui as anything but a last couple rounds MI.

#11 Mark DeRosa (ADP 177) : DeRosa was a waiver-wire gem last year. A career utility player, he found regular AB's and career highs in HR/R/RBI/SB. But at 34 years old, switching leagues will not be help DeRosa's fantasy chances in 2009. What's more, he led the lead the majors in lucky HRs in 2008.

#12: Jose Lopez (ADP 180): Lopez ended 2008 batting 4th and 5th in the lineup for Seattle. Did you know, he's only 25 years old? Better yet, did you know he batted .294 with 12 HR and 41 RBI in 265 post All Star break ABs? If he continued those numbers into next season and reached the same number of ABs (644 which I think very unliekly), he'd have 82 Rs, 29 HR, and 99 RBIs. Now we are talking some upside!

On the downside, Lopez has a lousy OBP (.322) and if he got into a funk it could be a long season for his owners. He was caught stealing on half his attempts too, so don't expect his SB numbers to increase...its more likely they will drop.

However, I think Lopez should flirt with 20+ HRs and drive in 80 RBI's with a batting average that won't damage your chances. That's three very solid lines from a MI taken after the 14th round.

[Note: Three days after I pulled these ADP's for anaylsis, Jose Lopez ADP moved 5 spots to 175. Looks like he'll be the latest victem of overhyped sleepers. I believe Lopez will be still offer good value until the 150 player taken, from that point on I would look for alternatives if you expect value from your draft board.]

#13: Kelly Johnson (ADP 204): Perhaps more than anybody else on this list, Johnson fantasy value in 2009 with depend heavily on where he bats in the Braves lineup. If he bats anywhere from 1-5, I'll be looking to draft him as either my 2nd basemen, or as a MI option from the 15th round forward.

A repeat of 2008 would be excellent. To prove my point, lets pull down those 'healthy' projections for Kendrick as well as Jose Lopez's 2008 stats and compare.

K Johnson - 2008: .287 BA / 86 Rs / 12 HR / 69 RBI / 11 SB
Jose Lopez - 2008: .297 BA / 80 Rs / 17 HR / 89 RBI / 6 SB
H Kendrick - 2009? - .305 BA / 82 Rs / 11 HR / 72 RBI / 14 SB

See my point. Kendrick edges Johnson in batting average and that's about it. Lopez will probably hit a couple more HR and RBI. But Kelly Johnson is still only 27 years old and could see an increase in his power. Let's assume 4-8 more HR's (which given his 39 doubles and 6 triples last season, is not a stretch at all), 10 SB and batting 2nd or 3rd for the Braves, you could make a good argument that Johnson is the best option of the three.

A word of warning: Lopez and Johnson's average draft position is pretty varied. Lopez has gone as high as 76th and as low as not drafted. Johnson as high as 132 and as low as not drafted. I have no idea of know under what conditions these drafts took place, but I'm assuming that they were regular style drafts (not AL or NL only). Its possible that either, or both will see their value increase significantly in the next two months. However, I have yet to see either of them appear on sleepers lists, so maybe it'll be our secret!

Tomorrow we will take a look at the siren song, Rickie Weeks - along with the remaining top 7 second basemen to round out the top 20!

Second Base: 1-8

2009-01-14T11:48:00.007-07:00

Today I'm ranking my second basemen a little differently than I have in the past. I am using Mock Draft Central current average draft position for my rankings. Not because I personally am ranking them in this manner, but because I think knowing the 'market value' of a player is more valuable to a manager preparing for a draft than a simple list.

1. Ian Kinsler (ADP 11) - If Kinsler gives you identical stats from 2008 he's a late first round or early second round pick. But can Kinsler do that? Two reason's I'm hesitant to draft Kinsler with one of my first two picks 1) In three MLB seasons, he's only ever played 130 games. 2) He batted .263 in 2007 (vs .319 in 2008) with similar HR/SB/RBI/R's.

2. Chase Utley (ADP 21) - A lot depends on the speed of Utley's recovery. When healthy, Utley would be a mid-first rounder. It's hard to know where to place Utley until we know more about his return. For now, I'd recommend extreme caution.

3. Dustin Pedroia (ADP 27) - If you honestly compare Pedroia' and Kinsler's numbers they should be getting drafted together! Both had awesome batting averages, scored a ton of runs, batted in a lot of RBI for leadoff hitters and had about 20 HR and 20 SB. Kinsler played 20 less games, but Pedroia has the better lineup surrounding him. I think Pedroia is getting a little Red Sox nation / MVP season love, especially when roto favorite Carlos Lee is being drafted on average only one spot ahead of him! If I were going to make a rational decision, I'd be looking for him about 10-15 spots later (But if you had your heart set on Kinsler, take Pedroia 2 rounds later!)

4. Brandon Phillips (ADP 30) - Again, isn't this a little early for a guy who swings at everything and is coming off an injury. Phillips batting average is what hurts his value the most. I think there is a perception that second base is very thin this season and I just don't see it.

5. Brian Roberts (ADP 37) - Finally a draft position I can really get behind. He's not sexy! He's not young. He's not going to get you any, 'Great pick' compliments. But Brian Roberts is solid. A .300 average with 100+ runs, 10 HR, and 35+ stolen bases is exactly the kind of production you need from a MI. I'll take the extra steals one round later and let someone else have Pedrioa.

Draft strategy: Say you are picking #10 of a 12 team draft and you really want to nail down your second base option early. Pass on Kinsler at 10 and hope if falls to you at 14. If Kinsler isn't there at 14 you'll get a shot at Pedrioa or Roberts at 34 or 38. This will allow you to land some solid middle of the lineup hitters at #10 and #14 like Ryan Braun, Mark Texiera, Josh Hamilton, or Matt Holliday.

6: Alexei Ramirez (ADP 52) - I was so disappointed to see Alexei being taken this early. He was my big sleeper pick at the end of 2008. Apparently he was everyone else's too. Alexei will have more value at SS this year, which is much thinner that 2b and is worth drafting as a SS at or around 52.

7: Dan Uggla (ADP 63) - Yuckity-yuck-yuck! That's what I think of Uggla's batting average. I won't be taking him. If he stole some bases, maybe I'd consider it but I like the next guy too much to deal with his average.

8: Robinson Cano (ADP 78) - If memory serves, Cano was everybody's favorite breakout 2 bagger last year. He was usually drafted around 50th overall. But now he's fallen a couple rounds, and he's one of my favorite sleepers (as defined by a player with limited downside but excellent upside). We know what his downside is because we saw it last season (.271 AVG / 17 HR / 72 RBI / 70 Runs / 2 SB). But what could his upside be? Turning 27 this season, I predict (notice, I didn't say project) .310 / 24 HR / 100 RBI / 89 Runs / 3 SB.

The next second baseman taken isn't until ADP 128, when Howie Kendrick falls off the board. We'll take a very close look at Kendrick, as well as the rest of the relevant second basemen tomorrow.

Catcher Rankings: more depth this year?

2009-01-13T14:47:00.008-07:00

First a word about how I'll draft at catcher this year.

I love the big 3, but if I miss one those guys, I'll probably wait until the end of the draft and focus on picking up solid MI's in round 6-10, which is were most of the Tier 2 guys are going. I'd much rather pick up a Sandoval or Napoli at the end of the draft and take my chances, than have Doumit riding the DL and Orlando Cabera at SS and Orlando Hudson at second.

Tier 1: Mauer, McCann, Martin - The elite. I don't care what order you draft them in, they are all solid contributors.

Tier 2: V-Mart, Soto, Doumit, Wieters - Often drafted too soon! Especially Soto is being drafted too early. Some Cubs fan is sure to grab Soto like he's Piazza. He's not. He's above average, but not the second coming of Yogi and Bench. Doumit and V-Mart have major injury question marks. Wieters hasn't technically been awarded the starting job yet and will have to produce like one of the big 3 to make his over hyped draft position by opening day. If you're in a keeper league, by all means, draft Wieters early. Otherwise, let someone else take him in the 6th round.

Tier 3: Posada, Ianetta, Napoli, Sandoval, Molina - Begining Bargins - I like all these guys are their current ADP. Sometimes Iannetta is gowing way too early, so don't reach. Hype is growing around Sandoval and Napoli right now, so they make move up a couple rounds by the end of spring training. Bill James thinks Sandoval will hit .320 with 100+ RBIs. Posada could be a bargain on draft day, watch his health status this spring.

Tier 4: Flyers that I like are Navarro (only 25 years old), Jeff Clement, Teagarden, and Kelly Shoppach. Jesus Flores is also interesting, although his batting average isn't nothing to write home about. Issues with batting average keep Snyder off the list.

Bonus Pitcher Breakout Material

2009-01-13T09:00:00.005-07:00

Sleepers:

Ubaldo Jimenez (ADP 301) - I like 25 year-old Jimenez as much as any late round flyer. Sure, he pitches at Coors, but he induces a lot of ground balls (54%), throws hard (94.9 MPH) and showed drastic improvement the second half of last season. His FIP in '08 was a very solid 3.84 and his xFIP of 4.38 only projects his ERA to only raise a little in '09. My draft strategy with Ubaldo is to take him late and start him on his first several road starts and see what happens. Best case, you get a #2 or #3 grade starter for half of his starts, or roughly 100 Innings. If Jimenez proves reliable, I'll then spot start him against weak lineups (Padres, Marlins, and Giants) at Coors.

Undecided:

Mike Pelfrey (ADP 210) - Pitches for the Mets, so that's a plus. Word is the Mets new stadium will favor pitchers. He's got a big frame so may not breakdown, as he is more likely too given his increase in innings pitched in '08. My biggest concern is a xFIP 4.70 projecting his ERA to rise considerably. On the other hand, I do like his ground ball ratio (49%) and that he throws hard (92.7)? I see Pelfrey as a candidate to get over hyped, since he's a Met and also because of a solid second half. Taken after 200 players are gone is one thing, but I won't reach for him!

O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D:

Matt Cain (ADP 126) - I just don't see much to get excited about here. Cain was egged as a breakout candidate last season, but things didn't improve dramtically. He's 25 and has progressed well for his age, but he has a terrible xFIP factor of 4.72, doesn't get a high percentage of ground balls (33%). He did post a reasonable 3.85 FIP, K rate, and ERA. A solid starter, not a 10th rounder. I'll pass of Cain and take my chances with Jimenez, or even Pelfry 6 rounds later.

10 Breakout Pitchers to Target/Avoid

2009-01-12T10:36:00.009-07:00

1. Why King Felix is being drafted 91st overall, I have no clue. More than any other season, he's poised to become one of the top pitchers in baseball. He throws hard (94.6MPH), has a great Ground Ball ratio (52.1%) and is only 23 years old.

2. Ervin Santana (ADP 83) - Okay, I know picking a guy who already had his 'breakout' season in 2008 is cheating, but the best may be yet to come. Ervin could match Johann this season and offer third round value in the 6th round. He throws hard (94.4 MPH on fastballs), showed good control, and has excellent run and defensive support. I wouldn't hesitate to make him my first pitcher taken.

3. Edison Volquez (ADP 110) - Volquez burst onto the scene early in 2008 making one of the last picks of many drafts or the first waiver wire pickups for many teams. What's more, he's for real. Although he showed cracks after the Allstar break, Volquez still should offer solid #2 pitching for most teams. Expect his ERA to rise (close to 4.00), but strikeouts to continue.

4. Chad Billingsley (ADP 93) - Billingsley has so much injury risk potential, he decided to break his leg this offseason. He's supposed to be good to go by spring training, but I'd avoid Billingsley because of potential for injury. He pitched 65 more innings in 08 than 07 and if you need more proof that this can been dangerous for young pitchers, read about the "Verducci effect." Names like Fausto Carmona & Dustin McGowen will appear and fantasy owners will shudder.

However, he projects like a stud and if you could get him a little later than his 8th round billing, it might be worth a chance. Just don't bet the farm.

5. Zach Greinke (ADP 149) - He's only 26 years old. He was solid for the Royals. What more do you want to know? I wouldn't expect better production from Greinke than his 2008 numbers, but neither do I expect him to regress, which is #2 fantasy pitching, for a 12th round pick.

6. Jair Jurrjens (ADP 179) - Pitched 43 more innings in 08 than 07, so there is an injury risk here, but given his draft position, I think people are sleeping on Jurrjens. With a good Ground Ball percentage (51.5%) and hard throwing (91MPH) it good to remember than Jurrjens is only 23 years old and something about Atlanta and young pitchers just feels right. Keep an eye on his Average Draft Position, but I'd pull the trigger on this guy earlier than the 15th round.

7. Jon Lester (ADP 101) - A 25 year-old cancer survivor who pitched 76 more innings in 2008 than the prior year. I've already harped on the Verducci effect, but in Lester's case I'm still buying. Why? Because the Red Sox are a smart organization that brought in rotation depth (Penny, Smoltz) and bullpen depth (Saito), and Lester won't have to pitch 7 innings, or every 5th day. Don't expect him to pitch 200 innings in 2009, but if he falls to you in the 10th round, I'd be happy with him as a solid #3 guy in my fantasy rotation.

8. Ricky Nolasco (ADP 125) - I don't expect Nolasco's value to out-perform his '08 totals, but a repeat would be nice, which is about where's being drafted. At 27 years old, I see Nolasco's ERA closer to 4 in '09 and I'd be more comfortable if he got more Ground Balls (only 38.8%), or pitched for a team other than the Marlins. Still the K's are nice. In short, "Yawn."

9. John Danks (ADP 152) - I'd rank Danks a couple spots higher if I wasn't concerned about his injury risk (56 Inn increase). He's not a huge K guy either, pitches in a hitters park, and is managed by Ozzie Guillen. I'm most likely going to pass on Danks this season.

10. Manny Parra (ADP 293) - Okay, everybody wants to pull a smart pick at the end of the draft and Parra could be that guy. He was a tease in 2008, flashing excellent K/9's in a few outings. He throws hard (92MPH) induces ground balls (51.6%) and just might flirt with a ERA around 4.00.

Kendry Morales

2008-12-24T12:05:00.003-07:00

It appears that Kendry Morales with have first shot at 1b for the Angels.

Morales hasn't done much with his 407 MLB AB's, but an impressiveTriple-A numbers (.335/.374/.518 line in 208 games) shows some encouragement.

I'm keeping an eye on Morales as a decent late round flyer. At this point, I'd rather draft him than an Overbay or Kotchman, because the power is for real. If Morales has a strong spring expect the sleeper label to get placed on him by a lot of fantasy sites.

Worst Case: Kotchman
Best Case: Ludwick?

Sleeper: Nelson Cruz

2008-12-23T11:34:00.002-07:00

Rumor is that Nelson Cruz is slotted into the cleanup role between Hamilton and Blalock next season. He'll strikeout a ton, but this 28-year-old finally put things together with an impressive minor league season, that made him look like Babe Ruth. In 115 AB at the MLB, Cruz had 7HR with a .330 Batting Average. I doubt he'll hit above .300, but he has power and decent speed (3 SB in 2008).

Currently being selected 184th (MDC), in the same neighborhood as Pat Burrell, Ty Wigginton, & Melvin Mora, I'm projecting 550 AB, .282 BA, 26 HR, 105 RBI, 95 Runs, 10 SB, .890 OPS.

If he reaches those gaudy numbers, that's Jason Bay in the 15th round.

First Base: 17-20

2008-12-19T10:05:00.002-07:00

17: Delgado, Carlos - Delgado turned things on in 2008 and will get drafted much higher than 17th overall, partly cause he's Delgado, partly cause he's a Met, and mostly cause he hit 38HRs. However, I see the next 3 sluggers as likely to having similiar value and should not be taken much ahead of Big D. (In other words, I would be shocked if he hits 30+ again.)

18. Konerko, Paul - I'm not saying I expect a bounce-back, but he couldn't do much worse than 08. His numbers have been in decline the last 3 seasons, but if anybody could pull a Delgado type 08, or late round draft value, I'd say it's Konerko. In fact, I'll go so far as to label Konerko as a post-injury sleeper for '09.

19. LaRoche, Adam - LaRoche actually had a decent '08. No really, he did! He's not got a ton of upside, but will be a solid Util/CI bench player. Draft him as such!

20. Jacobs, Mike - See LaRoche. Jacobs did punch 32 balls outta the park, but besides that he's not going to offer a lot of value. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think his value actually decreased going from Florida to KC. Also, the league switch usually takes a half season for batters to adjust to different pitchers.

First Basemen: 12 - 16

2008-12-17T14:19:00.005-07:00

12: Lee, Derrek: I love Lee! He's 34 years old. He's 2 seasons removed from his triple crown threat 2006. He plays for a high profile club that many times boosts his value because fans want their guy, or people recongnize his name (versus a Joey Votto or Adrian Gonzalez). All these things lead to him probably being overdrafted. Expect 20ish HR, 90 runs, 90 RBI's, good AVG (.300+), but not more. I love Lee, but not enough to draft him as my first Corner.

13: Davis, Chris: What do you do with Mr Davis. A darling of the waiver-wire pickups, I was able to deal Davis for Jay Bruce in one keeper league. I'm not convinced that Davis is a value pick and need to do some more research on him. For now, check http://razzball.com/chris-davis-2009-fantasy-sleeper/

14: Pena, Carlos: Pena's power is for real. His batting average is what hold him back from being an excellent fantasy commodity. If you're looking for power and don't mind a crappy batting average, Pena's price tag will be a lot cheaper (and probably only 8-12 HR short) of Ryan Howard.

15 & 16: Conor Jackson & James Loney: Both these guys put up very similiar numbers in '08. How similiar! Guess which guy is which!

#1: 595AB 0.289BA 13HR 0.772 OPS 66 RBI 90Runs 7SB
#2: 540AB 0.300BA 12HR 0.823OPS 87R 75RBI 10SB

Almost identical numbers. Loney's #1 and Jackson's #2. Both guys hit for average, a faster than your average first baseman, excellent defenders, and are young. I personally like Jackson a little more, because of the .50 point difference in OPS and because he's also eligible in the OF. Either (or both) of these guys could post Derrek Lee type #'s this season.

First Basemen: 9 - 11

2008-12-16T14:07:00.007-07:00

9: Howard, Ryan: So how could a guy who's being taken late in the first round of many mock drafts be 9th on my list? In his last 25 games, Howard went on a .352, 11HR, 1.274 OPS that pushed the Phillies into the playoffs. It was an incredible September for the big guy, but it still couldn't cover the fact that on the season he batted .251 with a .881 OPS.

Without September, Howard would have had an ugly, ugly 2008. Remember Richie Sexson's 'good' years. This is what I fear from Howard. His batting average and OPS have dipped the last two season, and at 29 years old, he's supposed to be having his best seasons. If you are willing to punt AVG, draft Howard (along with Adam Dunn, Richie Sexson, Rickie Weeks, Pat Burrell, and Dave Kingmen).

10: Youkilis, Kevin - Finally, the season we'd all been waiting for happened. If Youk is eligible at third base, I'd recommend you play him there. The .960 OPS is what is enticing. That OPS is only topped by Pujolis and Berkman at the position, and he's tied with Tex among first basemen.

11: Votto, Joey - I'll take some heat for Votto here, but check the post on Votto to understand why I'm sticking out my neck. If Jay Bruce or Justin Upton had the numbers that Votto posted in 08, guys would be taking them in the 3rd and 4th round. Better off taking Votto in the 6-8th round (currently being taken 93rd at mockdraftcentral.com).

First Base: Top Tiers

2008-12-15T13:22:00.005-07:00

Tier 1: Can't go wrong guys!

1) Pujols, Albert - I rank Pujols as the #1 player overall in 2008.

2) Cabrera, Miguel - worth a mid-first round pick, has same skill set as Pujols and ARod

3) Teixeira, Mark - If he lands in Boston or back with the Angels, he'll be set. Don't know about the Nats?

Tier 2: Keepers and Cornerstones

4) Berkman, Lance - Ranked top 10 in almost everything list I've seen from 2008, Berkman can hit, run, steal, field two positions.

5) Morneau, Justin - Power dropped, but still hits in the heart of the lineup. Don't undervalue his ability to hit for average and drive in runs. I'm projecting a few more home runs, as the guy hit a ton of doubles and even 4 triples in 08.

6) Fielder, Prince - All his offensive categories slipped in '08. His upside is still there (50HRs)!

7) Gonzalez, Adrian - SD, please, please, please trade Adrain. Poor guy hits .247 at home, with a .788 OPS. vs .308 with a .946 away. In other words. If the guy played in a normal ball park, we'd be seriously talking about in him the same breath as Tex! Really, I'm serious. You put in Denver or Texas, ballparks that tend to inflate hitters numbers, he could be a top 5 fantasy guy.

8) David Ortiz - Chances are he will only qualify at DH in most leagues. If he does qualify at 1b, and if he bounces back well from last seasons injuries, feel free to bump him up 3-4 spots.

Catcher rankings: The 3 M's.

2008-12-12T10:51:00.006-07:00

Tier 1: Keepers and Cornerstones

1) Joe Mauer (keeper) - Mauer's average and potential for a power breakout keeps him tops, but I wouldn't argue if you prefer McCann or Martin here.

2) Brain McCann (keeper) - he's great, hits in the right part of the lineup.

3) Russell Martin (keeper) - steals are nice, depending on how you rank speed, legit case for #1 slot.

Tier 2: Rebound?

4) V-Mart (possible keeper / health-risk) - I'm expecting complete bounce-back.

Tier 3: Solid (with Limited Upside)
5) Ryan Doumit (health-risk) - Health has always been the issue. Doumit was a top 10 waiver-wire guy in 2008 and is poised to continue. Watch health.

6) Geovany Soto (possible keeper) - A sleeper who delivered, Soto could easily match 2008, but don't expect a lot more.

7) Jorge Posada (health-risk) - He's the equivalent of 400 years old for a catcher (36 years old?), but worth a flyer if he slips into rounds 9-11.

Tier 4: Sleepers (& Really Limited Upside)

8) Mike Napoli - Projecting 500 AB last year Napoli would give him 44HR / 86 R / 15 SB / 108 RBI's. Obviously it'd be a mistake to project that, but he did a lot with split AB's, monitor closely this spring.

9) Chris Iannetta - See Napoli. He's a post-sleeper breakout candidate. Lots of potential still here.

10) Bengie Molina - Boring, but the definition of solid (and slow).

11) Matt Wieters (keeper) - O's have set the table, its Wieters job to lose. Could see Soto type 2009. Bump him up top the top of Tier 4 if with a strong spring training. If you're in a keeper league, Wieters is worth drafting early as he's the best catching prospect since Mauer.

12) Dioner Navarro - Batting average is for real, but without a little more power he'll be a borderline starter at best.

Tier 5: Value Rounds

Kelly Shoppach - only if V-Mart moves to 1st base
Jarod Saltalmacchia - Hmmmmmmm, will the Rangers trade him, will they play him at 1b?
A.J. Pierzynski - Kinda like Molina. Boring, but gets the job done.
Gerald Laird - Nice pickup for the Tigers, might equal Navarro's value if he keeps his BA up.

Sleeper: Joey Votto

2008-12-12T10:21:00.004-07:00

Value is often based were a player bats. In his rookie season, Joey Votto's 2008 season is a perfect example. Votto posted a decent 69 runs and 84 RBIs. Not bad numbers for a corner infielder, if a little short on the runs. However, can you imagine what he would have done with a whole season batting 3rd in the Reds lineup, like he did after the Adam Dunn trade (and Brandon Phillips injury)?

Votto: .297 BA / 24 HR / 69 R / 84 RBI / .870 OPS / 7 SB / 32 Doubles / 3 triples in 526 AB
Morneau: .300 BA / 23 HR / 97 R / 129 RBI / .870 OPS / 0 SB / 47 Doubles / 4 triples in 623 AB

In equal AB's, Votto moves up to 28 HR, 82 R, 99 RBI, 8 SB, 39 doubles.

I'm guessing Votto is the 10-14th 1B taken this year, somewhere between 75th and 100 overall. He will be on A LOT of sleeper lists...meaning ALL. However, if Votto nails down a lineup slot between 2nd and 5th, I project his value as a top 50 player...don't take him in the top 50, but feel free to pull the trigger any time after the 5th round.

Currently, Votto is going 93rd overall at mockdraftcentral.com! I expect that number to jump a couple rounds as the hype machine builds, but regardless. At 75th, he has the potential to be a steal.

Paul Millsap - Keeper next season?

2008-12-08T09:52:00.000-07:00

I'm not a big Fantasy Basketball nut, but I like to share when I see a good value..Carlos Boozer is a free-agent and very likely won't remain with the Jazz next season. Paul Millsap has been nearly a Boozer clone this past week with Carlos out due to injury. If you are in a deep keeper league, see if you can snag Millsap after Boozer gets back for a top 100 type player in the waining years of his career. Millsap could break top-50 value if he is named the Jazz starter next season.

Gerald Laird: What can we expect in 2009

2008-12-08T09:45:00.000-07:00

The Tigers made a good baseball move trading for 29-year-old catcher Gerald Laird Sunday. From a fantasy perspective what can we expect for Laird?

Laid hit .276 with 6 HR, 54 R, 41 RBI, and 2 SB (on 6 attempts). He actually hit better on the road (.299) than at hitter friendly Amerquest Field (.258), so don't expect a complete drop in value given the change of venue. Laird had a eye-brow raising 2006, when in 243 AB he hit a 7 HR, with a .296 AVG and a .805 OPS. However, expectations cool with a lousy 07 campaign. 2008 was right in the middle.

Don't get too excited though, he'll be a last round catcher at best, who won't hurt you at AVG and will get a fair number of runs due to a loaded Tigers lineup. I'm projecting .280 AVG / 10HR /60RBI / 78 R / 2 SB / .785 OPS.